Paul is one of the UK’s leading economists and economics commentators. Having worked in economic research, in consultancy and in government he became director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies in 2011, serving for nearly 15 years. In that role he helped cement the IFS’s place as the UK’s go-to organisation for high quality independent analysis in economics and public policy.

Having moved to be Provost of The Queen's College Oxford in summer 2025 Paul continues to work, write and speak on economics and public policy. He is a columnist for The Times, a regular contributor to other broadcast and print media and author of the bestselling book Follow the Money: How Much Does Britain Cost?

Paul’s expertise spans the UK economy and public finances, tax, pensions, education, health, climate change, and other areas of economics and policy. He has presented numerous programmes for BBC Radio 4, has hosted the popular podcasts The IFS zooms in and The Expert Factor, and is a regular guest on news and current affairs programmes including Any Questions and Question Time. As a former director of public spending and HM Treasury, chief economist at the Department for Education and deputy head of the Government Economic Service he brings practical experience of government and politics to his analysis of economic policy.

Paul was, for a decade, a member of the Climate Change Committee. He has served on the council of the Royal Economic Society and of the Economic and Social Research Council, as well as on numerous commissions for government and others, covering issues such as auto enrolment, inflation, devolution, tax, inequality, health, education and crime.

Paul has received numerous awards and honours, including a CBE for contributions to economics and the social sciences, visiting professorships at University College London and the University of York, and honorary doctorates from UCL, York, Sussex and Exeter. He is also an honorary fellow of the Faculty and Institute of Actuaries and of the Chartered Institute of Taxation.